Is the pen really mightier than the sword?

Last week, President Mugabe asserted his attitude to the elections scheduled for the 27th June- 'We are not going to give up our country because of a mere X. How can a ballpoint fight with a gun?' Given Tsvangirai's decision today, he certainly seems to have a point.
Mugabe is 84 years old he has controlled Zimbabwe for 28 years. I do not know many men or women past the age of 80 who particularly scare me,(apart from Hugh Heffner perhaps)but I am absolutely terrified of what this man stands for. The question that seems to reverberate across the Western World is how and why has the situation been allowed to escalate in such a manner? Why has nothing been done to challenge the continuous corruption and bloodshed?
From the early Matabeleland massacres to the constant election violence Zimbabwe has borne witness to since the MDC first stood in 1999, Mugabe has always chosen fear over respect as his tool of control. Now it has got to the point where a party that gained 48% of the popular vote (compared to his 43%) cannot stand against him. This is for several sad and sorry reasons: even if it were safe for the public to vote freely, the MDC cannot even campaign due to excessive roadblocks and and police intimidation. To label recent events in Zimbabwe a farce implies a mildness in tone that I do not want anyone to infer.
The civilsed world often looks back at the "lessons" that the 20th century have supposedly taught us and the "never again" ethos is banded about whimsically. Do we fail to see that genocide and a culture of fear are not political concepts that we have managed to distance ourselves from? They seem to be ubitquitous aspects of human nature and they will remain so unless countries change their attitudes and move beyond old ties, affliliations or prejudices that no longer exist.
With the absence of a viable contender, it is more than likely that Mugabe will announce his victory for another term. This may suggest that there is nothing that can be done to stop more years of the same. However, this could be the point when Mugabe is at his most vulnerable, whether he would like to admit it or not. With inflation hitting 1.6 million % and a critically severe food shortage, he is not in a position to stand alone; he needs allies more than ever if his regime is to economically survive.
There are really three paths that could be drawn for Zimbabwe. One has a fairly large roadblock in front of it, for good reasons. A National Unity Government would not work- if The MDC are not even allowed to campaign, then how can they hope to have their voice heard in government? Addtionally, Mugabe's ego would never allow it primarily because he doesn't believe he has to. Civil war is a possibility but this option assumes that the public have the resources or energy to facilitate yet more bloodshed. All they want is peace, or perhaps more urgently to survive. That leaves international intervention: the only real(final) solution.
Until now, African Leaders' attitude towards Mugabe have been far more equivocal in comparison to the outrage voiced by the West. Some would argue that they have been loathe to ostracise him as they still nostalgically view him as a fellow veteran of the anti-colonial uprising. This perception may be beginning to alter, in no small part due to them having to cope with the ever increasing multitude of refugees from Zimbabwe that are starting to drain their already sparse resources and amenities. Cynically, certain critics have argued that African nations are reluctant to turn their backs on him because he knows too much about their own indiscretions. Do we need to have a human rights amnesty? That reminds me, to get Mugabe between a rock and a hard place, China needs to follow suit.
Armed insurgence is not the answer though. The UN need to provide financial and diplomatic support to a credible opposition. Strict economic sanctions need to be applied by all countries. The international community need to refuse to recognise him in both a fiscal and domestic sense.
Mugabe is not formidable; he is an 84 year old bully who has had his day.